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SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK
Over the past three months, dry bulk newbuilding contracting has been 70% below the yearly average. Declining freight rates in recent months, a cloudy outlook and high newbuilding prices contributed to the slowdown, and contracting in 2024 will likely fall short of 2023 levels.
December 2024
Dry bulk contracting falls 70% below average amid low rates
Over the past three months, dry bulk newbuilding contracting has been 70% below the yearly average. Declining freight rates in recent months, a cloudy outlook and high newbuilding prices contributed to the slowdown, and contracting in 2024 will likely fall short of 2023 levels.
New wheat export tariffs could intensify 5% Russian export loss
Between January and November 2024, Russian seaborne dry bulk exports have decreased 5% y/y, driven by a 10% y/y decrease in coal shipments. The price competitiveness of Russian coal has deteriorated, compared to Mongolian, Indonesian and Australian cargoes, and a gradual increase in exports over land to China has also contributed to this decline.
November 2024
BDI still down 10% despite recovery in capesize demand
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has recovered since the start of November due to stronger capesize freight rates, but the index is still down 10% y/y. The capesize market has benefited from a 1% increase in shipments so far in November compared to October 2024 and November 2023. However, the increase has not been enough to recover to the highs seen during the first three quarters of 2024.
Coal shipments to advanced economies heading for a 15-year low
During the first 10 months of 2024, coal shipments to advanced economies fell 6% y/y. Import demand weakened, particularly in Europe, where it fell 22% y/y as countries continued to decarbonise their electricity generation. At this rate, shipments to advanced economies will reach a 15-year low in 2024.
Container ship deliveries hit new record of 2.5 million TEU
Just ten months into 2024, shipyards’ deliveries of container ships have reached a new annual record. A total of 410 ships with a capacity of 2.5m TEU have been delivered, surpassing the previous full year high of 2.3m TEU in 2023.
October 2024
Attacks on ships in Ukraine threaten 1% of dry bulk market
Since September 2024, five merchant ships have been hit by Russian missiles while in Ukrainian ports or waters. These were the first attacks on merchant ships since November 2023 and they could threaten 1% of the world’s dry bulk exports if safety is not improved. The price of war risk insurance has already increased but the impact on exported volumes has so far been limited.
Jet fuel shipments up 11% as airline traffic now exceeds pre-COVID levels
During the first nine months of 2024, seaborne shipments of jet fuel increased 11% over 2023. Shipments were equivalent to 461 million barrels or 1.7 million barrels per day (mbpd). At the same time, airline passenger traffic measured in Available Seat Kilometres (ASK) exceeded 2019 levels for the first time since COVID.
Guyana’s oil exports jump 58%
Year-to-date, Guyana’s oil exports have jumped to 598 thousand barrels per day (kbpd), a 58% year-on-year increase, adding to the growth achieved in previous years. Over the past three years, the average annual growth rate has hit 76%.
Container spot rates drop 43% in Q3, worst development in non-COVID year
The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) fell another 10% in week 39. In total, the SCFI has dropped 43% during the third quarter, the largest Q3 drop in a year not affected by the COVID pandemic (2020-2023) since the SCFI was launched in October 2009.
September 2024
Strong dry bulk market fuels 42% drop in ship recycling
Between January and August 2024, the number of recycled ships has dropped 42% y/y, the second lowest level in 16 years. The market has seen high freight rates and strong demand, delaying the recycling of older ships. On the supply side, the fleet has continued to grow slowly, limiting fleet renewal.
